BRICS Shifts From Expansion to Trade Infrastructure

TL;DR: BRICS leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration at the 18th summit on September 12–13, covering cross-border payments, supply-chain resilience, AI, development finance and small-business support, Yonkers Times reported. The group's next phase may rest on building trade and finance tools rather than adding countries. For investors, the test is whether those tools carry real volume.

Key Takeaways

• BRICS accounts for 29.1% of global GDP in 2025, up from 19.7% in 2009, according to Mint.
• China is 60.4% of the bloc's GDP, according to Mint, so the group's weight is concentrated in one member.
• The dollar's share of New Development Bank project funding has fallen below 60%, per Mint, but wider de-dollarization has not happened.

If you are pitched an emerging-markets, commodity or trade-linked deal, the currency those cash flows settle in is now a live diligence question. How far has that question really moved? Not very far yet.

How big is BRICS, and who is in it?

BRICS is large by output and heavily weighted toward one economy.

Measure	Figure
Share of global GDP, 2025	29.1% (up from 19.7% in 2009)
China's share of the bloc's GDP	60.4%
NDB project value in China funded in yuan	Over 73.3%
NDB project value in India funded in rupees	57%

China dominates the total. Mint says India and Russia also bring economic and political heft. The next point is our inference, not Mint's: a bloc this lopsided may struggle to agree on anything beyond broad language. You should read the 29.1% as the weight of 11 very different economies, with 60.4% of it coming from one.

Member counts also vary by definition.

What did BRICS actually build in 2026?

The most concrete output came from the trade track under India's chairship. The IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute says the Jaipur Consensus on an Invoice Discounting Mechanism, the Global Value Chains Action Plan 2026-2030, and progress on the Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership 2030 show an effort to build tools that can support actual economic cooperation.

Invoice discounting is trade finance, and IMPRI ties the work to improving trade finance for small and medium-sized businesses. That is unglamorous. It is also where a payment system either gets used or doesn't. The same paper says success depends on whether these initiatives keep working after 2026.

India holds the chair this year, according to the official BRICS India 2026 site, for the fourth time.

How far has the dollar's role moved so far?

Development-bank lending is one place Mint puts a number on it. Mint reports that a wider de-dollarization has not happened yet and is unlikely to happen anytime soon, while the dollar's share in projects funded by the New Development Bank has dropped below 60%. In China, over 73.3% of NDB project value was funded in yuan. In India, 57% was funded in rupees.

The political risk runs on a different clock. Mint notes that President Trump threatened a 100% tariff last year if the bloc sought to move away from dollars. A tariff threat can move prices long before any payment system carries real volume, and that is the downside to price first.

What should an accredited investor watch next?

Three things matter, and none of them is a trade signal.

First, look for the payment and invoice-discounting tools to show up in published volumes. A declaration costs nothing to sign; a working mechanism leaves a record. For a private deal, that decides whether a sponsor's trade-finance or settlement assumptions rest on anything real. Second, watch the currency mix of development-bank lending, because it shows whether emerging-market project cash flows are drifting away from the dollar. Third, watch tariff language aimed at the bloc, since that is the channel most likely to reach U.S. portfolios first, including through the import costs of any logistics or commodity-linked fund.

If you hold commodity or real-asset exposure, the earlier piece on gold, commodities and real assets as inflation hedges covers how those holdings respond to currency shocks. For long-lockup assets tied to trade routes and logistics, see infrastructure investing for accredited investors. Managers who trade macro themes are explained in the hedge fund strategies guide.

Common mistakes

The biggest one is reading a summit declaration as a market event. Declarations state intent, and the IMPRI paper itself separates broad declarations from tools that function.

Another is treating 29.1% of global GDP as the output of one economy. With China at 60.4% of the total, a move in China's numbers can shift the whole bloc's figure.

A third is making the dollar question a yes-or-no. The dollar's share is falling in one lender's project book, and the wider system has not moved. Both are true at once.

FAQ

Is BRICS a threat to the US dollar? Not on the evidence so far. Mint reports that wider de-dollarization has not happened. The sharper near-term risk is tariff politics: Mint says Trump threatened a 100% tariff if the bloc moved away from dollars.

Who is the leader of BRICS in 2026? BRICS has no single leader. India holds the rotating chairship in 2026, its fourth time, under the theme "Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability," according to the official BRICS India 2026 site.

Which country in BRICS has the strongest economy? China. Mint reports it accounts for 60.4% of the expanded bloc's GDP, and says India and Russia also bring economic and political heft.

How many members does BRICS have? Mint says the bloc has expanded from five members to 11, with Indonesia the latest addition.

One thing to do this week

When a sponsor or fund pitches you an emerging-markets, commodity or trade-linked deal, ask two questions in writing: which currency the cash flows settle in, and what the documents say about payment rails if sanctions or tariffs change. The answers show how much of the pitch depends on the dollar system staying as it is. For more analysis like this each week, sign up for the free AIN briefing.

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