Why Quantum Valuations Hinge on 2030 Revenue Multiples

TL;DR: Most public quantum computing companies are priced on revenue expected in 2030 or 2035, discounted back to today at about 25 percent, according to Evercore banker Mehmet Sanliol. He also expects consolidation, since about 185 private quantum companies are raising a median of roughly $10 million. The price reflects distant forecasts, not current results.

Sanliol is a managing director in Evercore's Technology strategic advisory practice in Menlo Park. He made these points in a conversation with host Yuval Boger on The Superposition Guy's Podcast, dated June 15, 2026, according to QuEra's listing. The Quantum Insider published the full transcript on October 24, 2026. This is a banker's view from the summer, newly in print, and not a fresh deal announcement.

How are public quantum computing companies valued?

Most are valued on revenue that hasn't been earned yet. Sanliol said that for the quantum companies listed today, the majority are valued on either 2030 or 2035 revenue multiples, and those multiples then get discounted back to the present. He put the discount rate at normally around the 25 percent area.

A discount rate is the haircut an investor applies to future money because it's uncertain and far away. The longer the wait, the bigger the haircut. A 2035 target asks you to wait five years longer than a 2030 one.

Valuation input	What Sanliol said
Revenue target year	2030 or 2035 for most listed quantum companies
Discount rate	Normally around 25 percent
Private quantum companies	About 185
Median raise	About $10 million

None of these is a measured result. Each is a forecast, an estimate or a count from one conversation, and we treat projected numbers the way we treat a sponsor's projected IRR: as a claim until someone shows realized figures.

Why does he expect consolidation?

The count of companies is the reason. Sanliol cited about 185 private quantum companies raising a median of $10 million, and the podcast summary says consolidation is expected to accelerate once real return on investment emerges.

Sanliol also described public equity as a currency and not only a source of cash. A listed company can pay for an acquisition in stock, which matters when the scarce asset is a small pool of technical specialists.

Keep in mind who is making the argument. Sanliol said M&A has been Evercore's bread and butter for 30 years, so a consolidation call is also a description of his business. Weigh the forecast with that in mind.

What has to happen before the 2030 numbers are real?

Hardware has to get there first. Sanliol said software companies are largely gated by hardware progress, needing hundreds to thousands of logical qubits and error rates near 10^-9. A 2030 forecast is therefore a bet that engineers hit their milestones on schedule.

That's the downside-first question for any private-market story. Our piece on why most AI venture funds will underperform covers how to separate a funded story from a funded business. If you hold a private stake and wonder what it would fetch, LP-led secondaries and the NAV discount shows why reported value and sale price can differ. And for the route into companies before they list, see our look at a pre-IPO mid-cap fund.

Common mistakes

Reading a revenue multiple as a measurement is the easy error. It's a forecast multiplied by a guess, and with a 2035 target the guess does most of the work.

The quieter one is ignoring the interviewee's seat. Sanliol advises on transactions for a living. He's a credible source on how the market prices these stocks, but he isn't a neutral party on whether deals will happen.

Private rounds aren't safer just because they aren't quoted daily. Private holdings are illiquid, there's no screen price to warn you, and a loss can be total.

FAQ

How are quantum computing stocks valued? Per Evercore's Mehmet Sanliol, most listed quantum companies are valued on projected 2030 or 2035 revenue multiples, then discounted back to today at around 25 percent. The price depends on forecasts, not current earnings.

How many quantum computing companies are there? Sanliol cited about 185 private companies raising a median of roughly $10 million. That's a figure from one banker's conversation, not an audited census.

Does consolidation mean quantum stocks will rise? No. Sanliol expects more mergers, but a merger doesn't tell you the price paid or who profits. Check the terms of any specific deal.

What to do today

Pick one quantum company you're watching and find out which year's revenue its valuation leans on, and what discount rate that implies. If the company's own filings don't make that clear, you've learned something about the price. For more independent analysis like this, the free AIN briefing is the place to start.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.