US Runs $5.5B Daily Deficit as Dimon Warns of Worse

TL;DR: Every day, Washington spends about $5.5 billion more than it collects, 24/7 Wall St. reported on October 21, 2026. In the same report, BlackRock's Larry Fink says he expects higher interest rates for longer, and JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon would not rule out a 6% 10-year Treasury yield.

What did Dimon and Fink actually say?

Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO, was asked about a 6% yield on the 10-year Treasury. According to 24/7 Wall St., he said, "I would never take it off the table." That is a refusal to dismiss the scenario. It is not a forecast.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink went further on direction. 24/7 Wall St. reports he said the debt that took 232 years to reach $8 trillion is now $40 trillion, and that he expects "structurally higher interest rates for longer, especially out the curve." "Out the curve" means long-dated bonds, the ones whose prices fall most when rates rise.

How big is the debt now?

The BBC reports that US national debt has passed $40 trillion. In 2016, the year Trump was first elected, it stood at just under $20 trillion, so it has roughly doubled in a decade.

You will see two daily figures quoted for this, and they measure different things. The $5.5 billion in the 24/7 Wall St. piece is the gap between spending and revenue. The BBC cites the Congress Joint Economic Committee for debt rising about $7.8 billion a day, which tracks the growth of the whole pile. Neither corrects the other.

Measure	Figure	Who reported it
Spending above revenue, per day	About $5.5 billion	24/7 Wall St.
Debt growth, per day	About $7.8 billion	BBC, citing the Joint Economic Committee
Debt level	Passed $40 trillion	BBC
Debt forecast for 2036	About $64 trillion	BBC, citing the Congressional Budget Office

Why does interest matter more than the headline debt?

Interest is the part that competes with everything else in the budget. Fortune reported in April that interest on the debt was already more than $1 trillion a year, and the BBC quotes economist Mohamed El-Erian saying interest payments are now almost 20% of tax revenue, which he calls "larger than defence."

Rollover is the mechanism. As old bonds mature, the government refinances at whatever the market demands. When yields have risen, each rollover costs more, and the extra cost lands in a budget that is already running a gap. That is why Fink's "structurally higher interest rates for longer" matters: the bill keeps compounding.

What does it mean for an accredited investor?

Three things follow for someone who allocates between public bonds and private markets, and they all start from the same place: downside first.

Treasuries are the benchmark. If the government pays you a high yield with no sponsor risk and no lockup, a private fund has to offer more to be worth the illiquidity. A projected return that looked fine when yields were lower may not clear the bar now, and projected returns are marketing until a full cycle proves them.

Duration is a risk you can measure. 24/7 Wall St. reports the long-dated iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has lost 8.19% over one year and 32.62% over five, while the short-term iShares 1-3 Year fund gained 1.45% over one year. Longer bonds hurt more when rates climb.

Higher rates also strain leveraged private deals, because debt costs more to roll. That is the pressure behind the BDC redemption crisis, the leverage questions in the 2026 BDC debt issuance wave and the pricing doubts in the secondaries market. Entry timing matters too, as the piece on vintage year in private equity explains.

Common mistakes

The most common error is reading a CEO's "I would never take it off the table" as a prediction. Dimon did not say yields will reach 6%.

Another is comparing a private deal's target return with an older Treasury yield, when the yield that matters is today's. People also mix the daily deficit with the daily debt increase, which are different measures and give different numbers.

The last mistake is assuming a short-term bond fund and a long-term one carry the same risk because both hold Treasuries. Over the past year the 20+ year fund lost 8.19% while the 1-3 year fund gained 1.45%, so they plainly do not.

FAQ

Is the US deficit getting worse?

24/7 Wall St. reports the federal government spends about $5.5 billion a day more than it collects. The BBC says debt is climbing about $7.8 billion a day, per the Joint Economic Committee. Both point to growth, not shrinkage.

Can the US realistically pay off its debt?

Nobody quoted here expects it to be paid off. The BBC quotes Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget saying there is no fixed number at which disaster happens. The CBO forecasts debt of about $64 trillion by 2036.

How do higher Treasury yields change the bar for an illiquid deal?

They raise it. A private deal has to pay you more than a Treasury for the lockup and the sponsor risk. If its target return sits close to today's Treasury yield, you are taking the extra risk for little or no extra pay.

What happens to private credit when rates stay high?

Borrowers pay more to roll their debt, and funds that promised easy exits can find investors queuing to leave. The BDC redemption crisis shows how that looks when it happens.

One thing to do this week

Pull up your bond holdings and find the duration on each fund. Then write down today's Treasury yield next to the target return on any private deal you are considering. If the gap does not pay you for the lockup and the sponsor risk, you have your answer. And if you want a read like this each week, the free AIN briefing sends it.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.