S&P 500 Years Near 10%: Just 4 of 69 Since 1957

TL;DR: Only four of the 69 calendar years from 1957 through 2025 ended with an S&P 500 return between 8% and 12%, per a Motley Fool count of Aswath Damodaran's data, even though the index averaged about 10.6% a year. Ten percent is a long-run result. If a private deal pitch leans on an average, ask for the spread.

Only four of the 69 calendar years from 1957 through 2025 ended with the S&P 500 returning between 8% and 12%, according to The Motley Fool: 1968, 1993, 2004 and 2016. Over the same stretch the index gained around 10.6% a year with dividends reinvested, using yearly return data gathered by NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran. So the number everyone quotes is a number almost no single year delivers.

Key Takeaways

• Four of 69 years landed between 8% and 12%, per The Motley Fool.
• Fifteen years lost money and 25 gained more than 20%, per the same count.
• The best year was about 44% (1958) and the worst about a 37% loss (2008).
• I haven't rebuilt the count from Damodaran's spreadsheet myself, so these tallies are the Fool's.

How lopsided is the spread of S&P 500 yearly returns?

Very. Of the 69 years, The Motley Fool says 15 lost money and 25 finished up more than 20%. Twenty-six ended under 8%, and that group includes the 15 losing years. Widening the window to 5% to 15% still catches only 14 of the 69 years, about one in five.

Outcome, 1957-2025	Years	Source
Total return between 8% and 12%	4 of 69	The Motley Fool
Total return between 5% and 15%	14 of 69	The Motley Fool
Losing years	15	The Motley Fool
Under 8% (includes the losers)	26	The Motley Fool
Up more than 20%	25	The Motley Fool

The table shows an average built out of extremes. The best year was 1958 at roughly 44%, and the worst was 2008 at roughly a 37% loss, per the same Motley Fool analysis.

If 10% is so rare, why does everyone quote it?

Because it holds over long stretches, and a long stretch is the only place it holds. The Fool's key points say that for 30-year periods, the index's yearly return landed in the 8% to 12% range three out of four times, as carried by AOL. Quote 10% for a career and it's fair. Quote it for next year and it's a coin you've never seen land.

The same shape shows up in a different window. Landmark Wealth Management, citing Bloomberg and Morningstar data for 1926 to 2025, says the index produced positive annual total returns 74% of the time, with an average positive year of 21.4% and an average negative year of 13.4%. Different start date, same lesson. Single years scatter widely around the long-run number.

Do streaks make it worse?

They can. The index climbed over 20% in five straight years from 1995 through 1999, then dropped in each of the next three, according to The Motley Fool. After 2016's return of about 11.8%, it gained about 18% or more in seven of the next nine years, per the same piece. A "normal" year was followed by a run of abnormal ones.

Streaks usually come from a few forces pulling the whole index at once, and this year shows it. CNBC reports the S&P 500 has been hitting new highs even as more of its 500 stocks hit new lows than highs. CNBC also says equal-weight S&P 500 funds are trailing the standard index again in 2026. The headline index and the typical stock are telling different stories.

What does this mean if you're sizing private deals?

This is why a public-market average belongs on a private-markets site. Wall Street's menu sells you the 10% figure as if it were a yearly paycheck, and private sponsors borrow the same trick. Be suspicious of any pitch that anchors on an average.

In the Navy I signed off on more than 1,000 QA jobs, and nobody accepted "it works on average." You verified the worst case before you trusted the rest. Do the same with a deck. Downside first: ask for realized returns from full-cycle deals, and ask what happened in the bad ones. Projected IRRs are marketing, and a smooth annual number in a pitch tells you how the sponsor wants it to look. That's my opinion, but the S&P table above is the evidence behind it. The most studied return stream on earth hit its own average in a given year about 6% of the time (4 of 69). Verify before you trust a private fund that claims better.

Illiquidity is the second cost. If you need cash in year three, the long-run number says almost nothing about what year three looks like, and a lockup means you can't wait out a bad one. For how a fund's reported multiple can flatter what has actually been paid out, read TVPI: The PE Metric That Flatters Every Fund Manager. For what an early exit costs, see how interval fund liquidity actually works. For the same dispersion problem in venture, see the angel returns data and portfolio size piece.

What should you watch next?

Watch whether the breadth gap CNBC describes closes, and whether the index's gains keep coming from a handful of names. I can't tell you which way it breaks. Neither can the history above. A calm year and a violent year both fit comfortably inside the same 10.6% average.

Common mistakes

The first mistake is planning around 10% as if it were a yearly paycheck. A year near 10% is among the rarest outcomes in the table, so a budget that needs 10% every year rests on a number that almost never appears.

The second is treating the average as a promise about the next twelve months. Four years in 69 near the mean gives you nothing to forecast with.

The third is ignoring the order of returns. Two investors with the same average can end up in very different places if one takes the loss early and needs the money.

FAQ

How often does the S&P 500 land near 10% in a year? Rarely. The Motley Fool counted four years between 8% and 12% out of 69 from 1957 through 2025. Widening to 5% to 15% catches 14.

How often does the S&P 500 lose money in a year? In the Fool's 1957-2025 count, 15 of 69 years lost money. Landmark Wealth Management, using a 1926-2025 window, puts positive years at 74%, which leaves 26% negative.

Is the S&P 500 expected to crash soon? Nobody can say, and none of the sources I cite makes that forecast. CNBC does flag that this year's gains are concentrated in a few stocks, which is a risk to watch.

What should I expect from one year of S&P 500 returns? A wide range. The data shows a best year near 44% and a worst near a 37% loss.

The Bottom Line

Pull the last ten calendar-year returns from your own brokerage statements and count how many landed within two points of 10%. Then hold any private deck's projected return up against that count. If you'd like more of this kind of reading on private markets, the free AIN briefing is where I send it.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.