US Market Pulse November 2026: Goldman's 2027 Outlook

TL;DR: Goldman Sachs Asset Management published its US Market Pulse for November 2026 this week. It expects US growth near 2.5% in 2027. It calls 2026 earnings growth "exceptional," driven by AI investment and higher energy prices, and expects that growth to slow in 2027 while still supporting equities.

That outlook arrives after a messy month, and a messier week.

What did Goldman say about 2027?

Goldman expects earnings growth to slow in 2027 but keep supporting equities, with US growth near 2.5% as the backdrop.

This is a forecast. Treat the 2.5% figure as Goldman's expectation, not a measurement.

What happened in markets in October?

The headline indexes hid a lot. According to Fort Washington's November review, the S&P 500 fell 0.9% in October and the Nasdaq fell 5.3%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 gained 5.0%. If your portfolio sits in a market-cap-weighted index fund, you felt the first two numbers. If it was spread evenly across companies, you felt the third.

October 2026 move	Result
S&P 500	down 0.9%
Nasdaq	down 5.3%
S&P 500 Equal Weight	up 5.0%
Semiconductors	down more than 15%
Energy	up 14%
Consumer Staples	up 11%
Utilities	up 10%
Health Care	up nearly 10%

Source: Fort Washington, November 5, 2026.

The same review reports that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are on pace to grow roughly 30% from a year ago, with more than 80% of companies beating expectations. Profits were strong while AI names sold off. That is why Goldman's earnings argument and October's price action can both be true.

What is the economy doing underneath?

Growth is firm and inflation is still running hot. U.S. Bank reports that third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.6% from a year earlier, with prices excluding food and energy up 3.1%, both well above the Fed's 2% goal.

The Fed has responded. Fort Washington notes a 25-basis-point hike in September, then a hold at the October meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh.

Why did stocks drop so hard on Thursday?

Stocks gave back a rally within a day. Saxo reported that the Dow rose 3% and the S&P 500 gained 1.6% on Wednesday after Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Then, according to CNBC, the S&P 500 fell about 4% on Thursday and the Nasdaq about 4.5%, the worst days for both since April 2025. The Nasdaq is now in correction.

Oil and the Iran war are part of the story. CNBC also notes that the odds of a rate increase, per the CME FedWatch tool, dropped from nearly 83% to 66% in one day as bond buying pushed the 10-year Treasury yield under 4.9%.

What does this mean for accredited and high-net-worth investors?

A portfolio that tracked the Nasdaq lost more than five percent in October, and one that tracked an equal-weight index gained five. If your public holdings lean on a handful of AI leaders, a 15% drop in semiconductors lands on you directly.

That is where private allocations enter the conversation, whether you are weighing private credit for retail and accredited investors, the exit side of private equity in our guide to private equity secondaries, or why mega-rounds lock out solo angels in venture. None of them is a reaction to one bad week. All of them carry lockups, and a sell-off will not release your money early.

What should you watch next?

The jobs report is the near-term test. CNBC says economists expect 65,000 new jobs for October after a September gain of 29,000, with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. A strong number would revive rate-hike odds, while a weak one would feed the growth worry that helped drive Thursday's drop.

After that, watch energy. Whether oil pressure keeps inflation above target decides if the Fed holds or hikes again.

Common mistakes

Reading one bad day as a verdict is the easy one. Thursday's drop was large, but Wednesday's gain was large too, and the month as a whole was mixed beneath the surface.

A bank's forecast is not a promise, though it is often treated like one. Goldman expects growth near 2.5%, and incoming data can overturn that.

Then there is the habit of checking only the index. October's 0.9% S&P 500 loss says very little about a portfolio that holds energy, utilities or health care.

FAQ

Is November usually a good month for stocks?

No one can promise the direction of any single month.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market?

That is a personal decision to take up with a qualified adviser. The data here shows a split market: October's equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 5.0% while the Nasdaq fell 5.3%. What you own matters more than whether you own stocks.

What counts as a stock market correction?

CNBC defines a correction as a decline of 10% from a record high. The Nasdaq crossed that line on Thursday, while the S&P 500, down about 4% that day, was not near correction levels.

Your next step today

If you want private-market coverage that reads the fee stack and the lockup before the pitch, join the free AIN briefing, and we will send you the next round of analysis as it lands.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.