National Debt Hits $40.36 Trillion: What It Means

TL;DR: The national debt has reached $40.36 trillion, according to wearesavers.com, after a $2 trillion federal deficit in fiscal 2026. Treasury data shows $40.27 trillion on October 6. If you're sitting on fresh cash, what matters is what interest costs do to Treasury yields and to the price of a lockup.

wearesavers.com reported on October 12 that government borrowing costs have increased, and it ties the new total to that deficit.

I could only find the $40.36 trillion figure on that one site. Treasury's Debt to the Penny data, as IndexBox reported, showed $40.27 trillion on October 6, so I treat $40.36 trillion as approximate until Treasury's own series shows it. On the submarine I signed off on more than 1,000 QA jobs, and none of them got a signature because a number looked about right.

How fast is the debt growing?

About $2.39 trillion in a year. The Joint Economic Committee's Republican staff calculated gross debt at $40.25 trillion on October 5. That is $2.39 trillion higher than a year earlier and $11.82 trillion higher than five years ago, or roughly $6.55 billion a day.

The milestone itself came earlier. AP reported that the debt passed $40 trillion as defense, Social Security, Medicare and interest on the deficit take an enormous share of spending. Reuters, via NBC News, put Treasury's reading at $40.047 trillion in August.

Reading	Figure	Source
Reported total, Oct. 12	$40.36 trillion	wearesavers.com
Total public debt, Oct. 6	$40.27 trillion	Treasury data, via IndexBox
Gross debt, Oct. 5	$40.25 trillion	Joint Economic Committee Republican staff
Total public debt, mid-August	$40.047 trillion	Treasury, via Reuters/NBC News

The figures differ because they were taken on different days, and the committee's was calculated rather than read from Treasury. All four point the same way.

Why does the interest bill matter more than the headline?

Because the debt only hurts through what it costs to carry. The Joint Economic Committee release puts the average interest rate on marketable debt at 3.518 percent as of September 2026, against 1.470 percent five years earlier. The same release cites the Congressional Budget Office forecast of net interest at 13.95 percent of outlays in FY2026, rising to 14.94 percent by FY2028.

wearesavers.com puts the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24 percent and the 30-year at 5.60 percent. Set that against a 3.5 percent average and the gap is plain. I expect the average to climb as older, cheaper debt rolls over and gets replaced at whatever the market demands that day.

What does it mean if you're deploying fresh cash?

It changes your hurdle rate. If you've just sold a business, the cash in your account earns a real yield in Treasuries while you vet deals, with no lockup and no sponsor. A private deal has to pay you well beyond the 10-year yield of 5.24 percent that wearesavers.com reports for the lockup, the fees and the chance you lose money. Illiquidity is a cost, so get paid for it or skip it.

Leveraged strategies face a harder test too. If you're looking at real estate debt or private credit, the borrowers on the other side are refinancing at today's rates, not the old ones. In my guide to real estate debt funds and their liquidity trap, I walk through what that does to redemptions. The private credit access guide covers the fund wrappers, and my piece on the FSB's private credit warning covers what regulators are watching.

What should you watch next?

Three things. The next CBO update on net interest as a share of outlays. The 10-year yield, since every private deal you look at gets compared against it. And the refinancing dates on anything you already own.

Common mistakes

The first is treating the headline number as a timing signal. A debt total says nothing about when yields move or markets turn, and I don't make market-timing calls. The second is comparing a private deal's projected return to a Treasury yield without subtracting fees and the cost of being locked up. Projected IRRs are marketing, so ask for realized returns.

FAQ

How much is the U.S. national debt right now? About $40.27 trillion on October 6, per Treasury data reported by IndexBox. Treasury's Debt to the Penny series carries the official daily figure.

When did the debt pass $40 trillion? In August 2026. Reuters, carried by NBC News, put Treasury's reading at $40.047 trillion in mid-August, the first time total debt topped $40 trillion. AP reported the same crossing.

How much interest does the government pay? The CBO forecasts net interest at 13.95 percent of federal outlays in FY2026, per the Joint Economic Committee release. That share is projected to reach 14.94 percent in FY2028.

Does a higher debt mean I should buy alternatives? No. Higher Treasury yields raise the bar for private deals. An alternative has to earn more than Treasuries pay after fees, lockups and the risk of loss.

What to do today

Open your latest statements and mark every holding whose payout or price moves with interest rates: floating-rate loans, real estate debt, bond funds, anything with a refinancing date. Next to each, write the Treasury yield it has to beat. If you want me to keep walking through numbers like this, the free AIN briefing is where I do it.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.