Gold Edges Higher on Softer Oil as Fed Outlook Looms

TL;DR: Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,171.65 an ounce on Monday as oil slipped from a five-month high and eased inflation worries. Traders see only a 15% chance of a Fed hike this month but 89% for December, according to CNBC. I'd treat the December number as the one that matters.

What happened to gold on Monday?

Gold edged up for a simple reason: oil fell. CNBC reported that oil slipped from a five-month high after President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia, which may lead to more Russian fuel exports. According to the same report, the drop eased some inflation concerns after strong CPI and PPI readings last week, driven in part by a surge in gasoline costs.

The Fed meets next week and is widely expected to hold rates steady. CNBC quoted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo saying gold is holding up even as the dollar strengthens, because safe-haven demand is benefiting both.

Measure (Monday)	Reading	Source
Spot gold	$4,171.65 per ounce, up 0.2%	CNBC
December gold futures	$4,191.90 per ounce, up 0.26%	CNBC
Chance of a Fed hike this month	15%	CNBC, citing CME FedWatch
Chance of a December hike	89%	CNBC, citing CME FedWatch

The market has mostly ruled out an October hike and mostly priced one in for December. That gap is the story.

Why did hike bets fall?

Part of it was the Fed chair. According to Bloomberg's report on Yahoo Finance, traders cut bets on a quarter-point hike to less than one-in-five after comments from Chair Kevin Warsh were read as supporting a hold. A hot inflation print the week before had pushed hike expectations up and lifted the dollar, and Warsh's comments halted that move.

That is why I read Monday as a pause, not a reversal. The same Bloomberg report says higher borrowing costs are a headwind for gold, which pays no interest. Verify before you trust any single day's pricing.

Where does gold stand after the war-driven slump?

A US-Iran conflict began in late February, and gold sold off hard in the months that followed. Gold has held above $4,000 an ounce since August, according to Bloomberg, after that war-driven slump pushed it into bear territory earlier this year. It is still down around a fifth since the conflict erupted.

Bloomberg, in a report published by Moneyweb, also noted that investors have added to gold-backed exchange traded funds for 13 consecutive weeks. Buyers are showing up even with hikes on the table.

What does this mean if you hold illiquid assets?

If you're sitting on proceeds from a business sale, cash and short Treasuries pay you to wait while a higher-for-longer path is still the market's base case. That raises the bar for anything with a lockup. Downside first: a private credit or real estate fund has to show it pays you for giving up your money, not just that it quotes a bigger yield than Wall Street's menu. I made that argument in the piece on the Fed's last hold and private credit spreads, and Monday's pricing doesn't change it.

Gold is a different trade from a private fund. It has no sponsor, no fee stack and daily liquidity, but it pays no yield. If you're weighing it as an inflation hedge, my 2026 guide to gold, commodities and real assets covers the trade-offs.

A single session can also reverse fast. September 28 is a good example, when rate-hike odds drove gold down even with oil rising. For the rate side, my read on the Fed's hawkish turn is the companion piece.

I can't tell you what the December meeting will do. Nothing in today's reporting says, and the odds have swung within weeks before.

Common mistakes

One morning's quote is not the price. Spot and futures differ, at $4,171.65 against $4,191.90 in CNBC's report, and intraday quotes keep moving, so compare like with like.

A 15% October hike chance doesn't mean the Fed is done. CNBC has December at 89% in that same report.

Falling oil also isn't a lasting tailwind by default. Monday's drop came from a sanctions waiver, and CNBC doesn't say how long it lasts.

FAQ

Will gold hit $10,000 an ounce?

Nothing in today's reporting points to a figure that high. The sources I checked describe gold near $4,170 and holding above $4,000 since August. A $10,000 target would be speculation, and I won't put a number on it.

Should I hold or sell my gold now?

That's your decision with a qualified adviser, and I can't make it for you. Ask what role gold plays in your portfolio, and whether a December hike changes that role.

Will the Fed raise rates in October?

Unlikely, going by pricing. CNBC cited CME FedWatch at a 15% chance this month, with the central bank widely expected to hold.

What to do today

Before you commit money to anything with a lockup, check whether it pays you more than short Treasuries do at a December-hike rate. If you want the same downside-first read on rates and private markets each week, subscribe to the free AIN briefing.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.