Why OpenAI Is Racing Anthropic's IPO With a $30B Raise

TL;DR: OpenAI is trying to lock in new investor commitments before its main rival lists. Reuters, as carried by The Business Times, reports that OpenAI is raising money in an unusually fast round that could value it at more than $1.4 trillion, according to two people familiar with the matter. The same report says SoftBank Group, Abu Dhabi-based MGX and other existing backers are in talks to join a round of about $30 billion.

None of this is confirmed by the companies. It rests on anonymous sources, and the terms could change before anything closes.

What happened, and what are the numbers?

OpenAI wants its funding number set before Anthropic goes public. Here are the reported figures, each with the outlet that published it.

Item	Reported figure	Source
OpenAI target round	About $30 billion	Reuters via The Business Times
OpenAI target valuation	More than $1.4 trillion	Reuters via The Business Times
OpenAI last valuation	$852 billion in March, after a $122 billion round	Reuters via The Business Times
Anthropic Q3 2026 revenue	$16.8 billion, up from $11.6 billion in Q2	Reuters via The Business Times
Anthropic expected debut	Mid-November	Reuters via The Business Times

Anthropic gave the revenue figures to investors itself. The same report adds that slowing month-to-month revenue growth has raised concerns among investors about its valuation. A rising quarterly total can hide a slowing monthly pace, and that gap is the thing to watch.

Why would OpenAI want to finish first?

The reported reason is comparison. According to a report Yahoo Finance carried from BeInCrypto, one source said OpenAI wants to finish before Anthropic's disclosures let investors compare the two businesses side by side. Once a company publishes audited numbers, its private rivals get measured against them, whatever their own marks say.

There is also a dispute over how revenue is counted. That same report says OpenAI has accused Anthropic of counting the full value of contracts sold through cloud providers, and that Anthropic has said it follows established accounting practices. The claim reaches us through a syndicated report, not the original reporting, so treat it as an allegation from one side.

Is OpenAI going public too?

Not this year, according to CNBC, which says OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has ruled out a 2026 debut. The Reuters report adds that investors familiar with the company say OpenAI also needs capital for its infrastructure commitments, and as a cushion if weaker IPO markets push its planned 2027 listing back again.

That leaves Anthropic as the only major candidate this year. CNBC reports that of the 23 companies on Kalshi's IPO market still open to trade, only Anthropic offers better than 50% odds, at 75% as of Monday morning. It also reports that the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025. Prediction market odds are traders' guesses, not a filing.

What does this mean for an accredited investor?

You are unlikely to be in this round. Your exposure, if you have any, probably comes through a pre-IPO platform, a feeder fund or a secondary purchase, and each of those adds its own fees, lockup and markup on top of whatever the company is worth.

Downside first. A target valuation is a price someone hopes to get, not a price you can buy at. AIN's earlier look at Anthropic's leaked prospectus made that point, and it also showed how a large net loss can include a non-cash charge. Once public numbers exist, funds holding private AI shares will have a new reference point for how they mark those positions. That is where TVPI and similar fund metrics start to move, and where the growth-stage pre-IPO trade-offs become concrete. The pay table in the filing is a smaller story, which AIN covered when Dario Amodei's compensation surfaced.

Common mistakes

The first mistake is treating a source-reported valuation as a done deal. Two unnamed people told Reuters about the valuation, and one of them described the round size and the backers in talks. That is the whole evidence so far.

The second is comparing the two companies on revenue alone when the argument is about how revenue gets counted. The third is reading prediction market odds as evidence about the business, when all they show is what traders expect.

FAQ

Is Anthropic going public? Anthropic is expected to debut in mid-November, according to Reuters. CNBC reports Kalshi traders put the odds of an official IPO announcement this year at 75%. Anthropic has not published a final prospectus in the sources reviewed here.

Will OpenAI go public? OpenAI is reportedly aiming for a 2027 listing, according to Reuters. CNBC reports Sam Altman has ruled out 2026. Timing could slip if IPO markets weaken.

What is the best AI IPO to invest in? No one can answer that responsibly, and AIN does not make buy or sell calls. Read the filing, the fee and lockup terms for any vehicle you use, and the revenue accounting notes before you decide.

What are some anticipated IPOs? Anthropic is the main one. CNBC reports that the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025.

What to do next

Verify before you trust. When Anthropic's prospectus becomes public, open the revenue recognition note first and check how it treats contracts sold through cloud providers. That one note will tell you more about the OpenAI dispute than either side's valuation does.

Sign up free for the AIN Briefing and we'll flag that note the day it is public.

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