60% of S&P 500 Stocks in a Bear Market, Index Near High

TL;DR: About 60% of S&P 500 stocks are at least 20% below their own highs, Goldman Sachs trader Bobby Molavi said, yet the index closed November 3 only 3.2% below its record. The index weights companies by market value, so a few giants can hold it up while most members fall.

Key Takeaways

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,568.92 on November 3, 3.2% below its October 6 all-time close, per 24/7 Wall St..
• 24/7 Wall St.'s own count found 289 of 502 members (57.6%) at least 20% below their all-time highs.
• Against 52-week highs, only 169 members (33.7%) are down 20% or more, according to the same count.
• The Magnificent Seven have shed about $4 trillion in market value since October 15, per 24/7 Wall St.

What did Goldman say about the S&P 500?

Goldman Sachs trader Bobby Molavi said roughly 60% of the benchmark is in bear market territory even though the index is near its high. According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 was within about 3% of its latest record on November 3. Molavi called it strange that the tech megacaps spending heavily on AI and the companies receiving that spending are falling together.

The index itself is not in trouble by the usual definition. It closed at 7,568.92 on November 3, per 24/7 Wall St., which left it 3.2% below its October 6 all-time close.

Is the 60% figure really right?

It depends on which high you measure from. 24/7 Wall St. ran its own count to show it, checking all 502 index members at November 3 closes.

Measure	Reading	Source
Members at least 20% below all-time high	289 of 502 (57.6%)	24/7 Wall St. count
Median gap from all-time high	23.5%	24/7 Wall St. count
Members at least 20% below 52-week high	169 (33.7%)	24/7 Wall St. count
Median gap from 52-week high	13.4%	24/7 Wall St. count
Members at least 10% below 52-week high	61%	24/7 Wall St. count

The headline holds up, with a caveat. Against all-time highs, close to six in ten stocks are down 20% or more. Against the last year, about a third are. Either way, most of the index sits well off its peak.

How can the index sit near a record while most stocks fall?

The S&P 500 weights each company by market value, so the biggest names move it the most. Per 24/7 Wall St., the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's largest holding alone carries 7.58% of its assets. When a handful of large stocks hold up, the other 400-plus can slide without the headline number moving much.

The giants have their own problems. The Magnificent Seven have shed about $4 trillion since October 15, according to the same outlet. Oracle sits 50% below its 52-week high, while Microsoft is just 5.5% below its own. The index looks calm because the damage is uneven.

What does this mean for an accredited investor?

Start with the downside. If you hold index funds, you may own less diversification than the fund count suggests, because a cap-weighted fund can look steady at the top line while its typical member struggles. The index level reports on the biggest companies. It says much less about the average stock.

That is a reason to look at what you own, and it is no signal to sell. Our earlier piece on non-AI stocks catching the S&P 500 shows the same concentration cutting the other way. Wall Street's menu is easy to sell, and a headline index number makes it look safer than the average holding is.

Access to private markets is not an edge here. Judgment is. Private holdings don't reprice daily, which can feel safer and isn't, and illiquidity is a cost you should be paid for. Before you move money, read the fee stack and the lockup. Two places to start are money-market yields against private credit and what BDC discounts to NAV say about how the market prices credit risk. If you want an exit route for private stakes, see how PE secondaries work.

Common mistakes when reading this headline

Treating "60% in a bear market" as a forecast is the usual one. It describes how far prices sit below past highs and says nothing about where they go next.

People also skip the yardstick. A stock 22% below a high set two years ago and one 22% below a high set last spring both get counted, though they are different situations.

Finally, a record-near index can lull you into thinking your portfolio is healthy. If most of your holdings track the biggest names, your result may hang on a few companies.

FAQ

What counts as a bear market? A drop of at least 20% from a high, according to 24/7 Wall St.. It also notes that the choice of high determines the answer, which is why the share of stocks changes with the yardstick.

Is the S&P 500 itself in a bear market? No. It closed November 3 at 7,568.92, which is 3.2% below its October 6 all-time close, per 24/7 Wall St. That is far from a 20% decline.

Is 2026 a bull market or a bear market? It is both, depending on what you measure. The index sits 3.2% below its record, while 57.6% of its members are at least 20% below their all-time highs, per 24/7 Wall St.'s count.

One thing to do today

Open the fact sheet for each index fund you own and list its ten largest holdings. If the same names appear in several funds, count them as one bet, then decide whether that matches the downside you meant to take. For more reads like this on public and private markets, join the free AIN briefing.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.