Will Crypto Rally After the Midterm Elections?

TL;DR: Democrats have flipped Congress, according to CNBC's live midterm coverage. Today, a Motley Fool analysis published on Yahoo Finance asked what comes next for crypto. Its answer leans on history, and that history is thinner than the headline suggests, so it deserves a slow, close read before it moves a position.

What has Bitcoin done after past midterm elections?

It rose in the following year every time. The Motley Fool, citing TradingView and CoinDesk data, lists the 12-month gains after four midterms, and every one of them is positive.

Midterm cycle	Bitcoin gain, following year
2010-11	1,579%
2014-15	24.1%
2018-19	44.9%
2022-23	92.1%

The 2010 figure is a product of a market that barely existed. Excluding that cycle, Bitcoin gained an average of 54% in the year after the past midterms, according to CoinDesk.

Is three data points enough to trust a pattern?

No, and the Motley Fool says so itself. It notes that four midterms is not a large sample, and that it is really three, given how small the crypto market was in 2010.

There is also a competing explanation. The same analysis points out that after Bitcoin's last four halvings, the price surged for the next 12 to 18 months or so and then fell into a bear market. Midterm years and halving cycles overlap, so the vote may be getting credit for a pattern that runs on its own clock.

Does a year-ahead average tell you what the ride was like?

No. A year-ahead average tells you where the price ended up. It says nothing about the drawdowns, or the pull to sell, that you would have had to sit through to get there. That is the real cost.

Does the stock market follow the same script?

It has, by a smaller margin. Business Insider reports that BlackRock found the S&P 500 gained an average of 14% in the 126 trading days after a midterm election since 1970, against an average 6% gain in non-midterm years. Goldman Sachs strategists, in the same report, put the median S&P 500 return from August 1 to Election Day in midterm years at 0%.

Both markets show relief once uncertainty clears. Crypto just swings harder, and the swings run in both directions, which is why the same average can hide very different rides.

What is different about this cycle for crypto?

Policy has been friendlier. The Motley Fool says cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a much more supportive regulatory environment since President Trump took office and Republicans gained control of Congress in early 2025. A Democratic Congress changes that balance, and no source in this piece says how. Whether it matters for crypto is an open question, so treat anyone who answers it with confidence carefully.

For related reading on how rules shape what investors can hold, see our piece on the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto and the T. Rowe Price multi-token crypto ETF.

Common mistakes

The most common error is reading a 12-month average as a plan for the next 12 weeks.

A second mistake is sizing a position to the average gain instead of the worst stretch. If a drop of that kind would force you to sell, the position is too large for you, whatever the history says.

The third is treating a small sample as a law. Three cycles can describe what happened. They cannot promise what will.

FAQ

Will Bitcoin go up after the 2026 midterms? Nobody knows. Bitcoin was higher a year after each of the last four midterms, but the sample is tiny and overlaps with halving cycles. Past results do not guarantee future ones.

How much did Bitcoin gain after past midterms? Excluding 2010, Bitcoin averaged 54% in the year after midterms, according to CoinDesk data cited by The Motley Fool. The individual years were 24.1%, 44.9% and 92.1%.

Do stocks rally after midterms too? Historically, yes. BlackRock's analysis, reported by Business Insider, shows the S&P 500 averaging 14% in the six months after midterms since 1970, versus 6% in non-midterm years.

What to do today

Write down the largest drop you could hold through on your crypto position, in dollars, before the next headline moves the price.

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