Anthropic's IPO: Growth Story vs. Its Compute Costs

TL;DR: Anthropic filed for a U.S. initial public offering on Oct. 26, and Caixin Global reports that the filing disclosed rapid revenue growth and its first quarterly operating profit, alongside nearly $800 billion in long-term computing commitments.

For an accredited investor, the useful question is what the price asks you to believe.

How fast is Anthropic growing?

Revenue reached $17 billion in the third quarter, up from $11.5 billion in the previous quarter, according to TechCrunch.

For the first half of 2026, CNBC reports $16.29 billion in revenue against a $2.38 billion cost of revenue, which implies an 85% gross margin.

What do the costs look like?

Compute is the cost to watch. In the third quarter, compute and infrastructure expenses climbed about 77% to $9.9 billion while revenue rose nearly 47%, according to Fortune. TechCrunch puts compute at 58% of revenue, up from 48% the quarter before.

Part of the jump came from buying capacity at short notice. Anthropic typically orders compute 12 to 18 months ahead, Fortune reports, but it pays more for short-term capacity whenever customer demand or research needs outrun what it has already secured. The company attributed a drop in its adjusted operating margin to 15% from 19% mainly to those short-term costs.

The profit picture depends on which quarter you read. TechCrunch says many indications imply the compute shift is more of a blip than a long-term problem. It also notes that as long as revenue is growing at nearly 50% a quarter, few investors will worry about high compute costs. A demand miss would remove that comfort fast.

How big are the spending commitments?

Two figures circulate, and they measure different things. Caixin's nearly $800 billion covers long-term computing commitments. The larger number is total future spending: $895.4 billion stretching out to 2045, according to Yahoo Finance, which republished a Fortune report.

Some of that spending is financed in unusual ways. Under a March 2026 agreement, Anthropic can issue up to $42 billion in convertible notes to Broadcom to cover eligible quarterly rent, per Yahoo Finance. In a separate equipment lease, Broadcom has agreed to cover part of the shortfall if Anthropic defaults. You would be buying a company whose lenders and suppliers hold claims on its future.

What price is the market being asked to pay?

Fortune reports that institutions are pushing for pricing at the lower end of a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range. On roughly $35.3 billion in revenue over the past four quarters, that range means paying $43 to $57 for every dollar of sales.

History is not kind to prices like that. Fortune cites a study by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida: only 14 of the 4,110 IPOs between 1980 and 2024 priced above $40 per dollar of trailing revenue.

The last private round gives the other half of the comparison. Caixin's funding timeline lists a $65 billion Series H in May 2026 at a $965 billion post-money valuation (the company's value counting the new cash). Public buyers would be paying the step-up that earlier investors already hold.

Item	Figure	Reported by
Q3 revenue	$17 billion	TechCrunch
Q3 compute and infrastructure expense	$9.9 billion	Fortune
Adjusted operating margin	15%, down from 19%	Fortune
Spending commitments	$895.4 billion through 2045	Yahoo Finance
Price per dollar of trailing sales at $1.5T to $2T	$43 to $57	Fortune
Prior IPOs above $40 per dollar of sales	14 of 4,110	Fortune, citing Jay Ritter

Growth is real. The price leaves almost no margin for it to slow.

Access is not an edge. Judgment is.

Who controls the company after the IPO?

Public buyers would own shares with limited say. Seven co-founders, including CEO Dario Amodei, hold special voting power through a single Class F share (a share class with its own fixed voting weight) equal to 50.1% of total voting power, per CNBC. Caixin frames the test as investors' willingness to pay for growth while accepting large spending obligations and limited influence over governance.

Common mistakes

Net loss and operating results are separate lines in the filing, and the operating figures are the ones that show whether the business itself earns money. Our piece on what the S-1 still doesn't answer covers the open questions.

Offering size trips up even careful readers. A hedge fund representative told Caixin the offering could raise $50 billion to $100 billion, but Anthropic has announced neither a size nor a price range.

A first operating profit can also fool you into thinking the model is proven.

If you hold pre-IPO shares through a secondary marketplace, read your transfer and lockup terms before the listing date. Our Hiive review explains how those platforms handle access and fees.

FAQ

When will Anthropic's stock start trading? Market participants expect trading to begin in mid-November after a roadshow, according to Caixin. The company has not announced a price range or offering size.

Is Anthropic profitable? Caixin reports the filing disclosed its first quarterly operating profit. Compute costs are rising faster than revenue, so check the quarterly operating lines in the S-1 yourself.

What is the biggest risk for IPO buyers? The price relative to sales and the size of the commitments. Fortune cites $43 to $57 per dollar of trailing revenue at the targeted range, and the filing commits roughly $895 billion in spending, per Yahoo Finance.

Who controls Anthropic after the IPO? Seven co-founders hold a Class F share worth 50.1% of the voting power, per CNBC. Public shareholders would have limited influence over governance.

What to do today

Before the roadshow ends, open the S-1, find the commitments table and the compute expense line, and work out how fast quarterly revenue has to grow for the margin to stop shrinking. For a weekly read on filings like this one, subscribe to the free AIN briefing.

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