More Fed Rate Hikes Are Coming: What Investors Face

TL;DR: Cabot Wealth Network published its latest call on October 22, 2026. Its argument is that "Inflation is sticky and the economy is strong. And that combination points to more Fed rate hikes ahead—in 2026 and beyond." Cabot's piece is commentary, so the more useful question is whether the Fed's own officials and the forecasters who track them say the same thing.

What did the Fed and the forecasters say?

Mostly yes, with one caveat on timing. The Fed raised its policy rate in September to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, according to Reuters. The Associated Press reported that officials in the minutes "unanimously agreed that inflation was still elevated and had not made much progress toward their 2% target in recent months."

The AP also reported that overall prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier in the August data, with core prices up 3%. Many officials believe inflation is stuck between 2.5% and 3%, even after setting aside higher oil and gas prices and tariffs. That's a long way from the 2% target.

Will the Fed hike at the October meeting?

Probably not. A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect no hike at the October meeting. All 100 anticipate a 25-basis-point increase in December.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem gave the same signal. Yahoo Finance reported he said more hikes will be needed over the next six to nine months, "but he didn't indicate that the central bank needs to move at its next policy meeting."

Source	What it expects
Reuters economist poll	94 of 100 expect a hold in October; all 100 expect a December hike
Market pricing, per Yahoo Finance	Better than 80% chance of an October hold; nearly 70% odds of a December hike
St. Louis Fed's Musalem	More hikes over the next six to nine months
Cabot Wealth Network (Oct. 22, 2026)	More hikes in 2026 and beyond

The sources agree on direction. They differ on how far it goes. In the Reuters poll, nearly 60% of forecasters see the policy rate peaking at 4.00%-4.25%, while 38 of 92 predict at least two further increases. Cabot's call that inflation won't return to target is a forecast, not a measurement, so weigh it against what the Fed's own officials say.

Why does inflation look so stubborn?

Because it is spreading across categories. Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman told Reuters that "inflation is broadening out, something that is not a good omen for the Fed." Higher gasoline prices from the Middle East war were a main driver, according to the same Reuters report.

The Reuters poll adds the long view. Forecasters see the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, staying more than 100 basis points above the 2% target over coming quarters and not returning to it until at least 2028. Inflation has already been above target for nearly six years.

What does this mean for accredited investors?

A rising rate path reaches private deals through the debt underneath them. Every private-market projection, whether a credit fund's yield or a real estate syndication's refinance plan, rests on an assumption about what money costs. A pause in October followed by a hike in December means that assumption is still moving, and a sponsor's number built on today's rates is a moving target.

If you hold a floating-rate lender, such as a business development company, higher rates can lift income quickly, and the BDC income piece covers the catch. If you're weighing a private credit fund against cash, compare the yield with what a money market pays, as in money-market yields versus private credit. Your lockup should earn you something.

For context on how the last hold affected credit allocations, see what the Fed's hold meant for private credit spreads. This is general education, not a recommendation on any security or fund.

What mistakes do investors make when the Fed signals more hikes?

One is treating an October hold as the end of the cycle. Officials who see no rush in October are the same ones saying more hikes are needed.

Another is anchoring on one probability. Market odds are a snapshot, and they can swing fast, so plan for a range of outcomes rather than a single number.

The third is accepting a projected yield without asking what rate assumption sits behind it. If the sponsor can't tell you, the number is marketing.

FAQ

Will the Fed raise rates in October?

Unlikely. In the Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect no hike at the October meeting. The same poll has all 100 expecting a quarter-point hike in December.

What will Kevin Warsh do to interest rates?

According to The Motley Fool, the minutes released October 7 show Warsh and other central bankers plan to hike again in 2026. No source in hand states what he will do beyond that.

Where should you put your money if inflation persists?

That depends on your taxes, liquidity needs and existing holdings, so it is a question for a qualified adviser. What you can do yourself is compare any lockup against the cash yield you are giving up.

What to do this week

Before the October 27-28 meeting, pull the projected yield on any private fund you're considering and ask the sponsor in writing which interest-rate path it assumes. Then compare the answer with the Reuters poll's December hike, and if you want this kind of rate-by-rate read each week, sign up for the free AIN briefing.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.