Weekly Market Commentary: Oil, AI Debt and the Fed

TL;DR: BlackRock reports Brent crude hit a five-month high last week. Global equities slipped for a second week on doubts about debt-funded AI spending, and the Fed's policy statement arrives Wednesday at 2 p.m. For accredited investors, the AI-debt question may reach into private credit and venture valuations, though that link is our reading.

What happened in markets last week?

Oil rose, tech fell and the broad index barely moved. In its weekly commentary dated Oct. 26, the BlackRock Investment Institute said Brent crude jumped to a five-month high and that the Nasdaq fell nearly 1%.

The same commentary says the global economy has weathered the energy shock better than expected, thanks to AI investment and government spending, but not everyone is feeling it equally. That unevenness shows up in the numbers below.

Asset	Past week	Year to date
S&P 500	-0.47%	11.37%
Oil (WTI crude)	0.03%	67.81%
Gold (New York)	-3.50%	-7.28%
Bitcoin	-0.81%	-32.24%

The figures come from Fidelity, which sourced them to Yahoo Finance as of Oct. 23. Oil is up sharply for the year while gold and Bitcoin are down, so the energy shock has not lifted everything at once.

Why are investors questioning AI spending?

The doubt is about repayment. UBP wrote that global equities slipped for a second week as investors questioned whether debt-funded AI spending can earn adequate returns.

UBP also noted that US Treasury yields fell back below 5%. Think of it as a ledger with two columns: borrowers promise to pay back with returns from AI buildouts, and lenders are starting to ask what happens if those returns come in late or light.

For a reader who holds public stocks and is being pitched private deals, that question matters because the same borrowing logic may sit behind some private-market valuations. That link is our reading, not something these sources state. It is why the private credit market and recent AI valuation marks deserve a second look when public sentiment turns.

What is the Fed expected to do Wednesday?

Most indicators point to no change. UBP said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to leave key rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% after last month's rate hike. Edward Jones charted market pricing for an October hike falling from around a 70% chance in September to less than 10% now.

BlackRock described this as the Fed's second-to-last policy meeting of 2026. Fidelity lists the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index report for Thursday at 8:30 a.m., so the week carries both a rate decision and a fresh inflation read.

UBP also expects the first estimate of US Q3 GDP growth to show a pickup from 2.2% in Q2 to 3.2%. That is a forecast, not a result.

What does this mean for accredited investors?

If a large share of your public portfolio sits in AI-linked names, last week's Nasdaq decline already tested it. If your private holdings include credit or venture funds that finance the same buildout, they carry related exposure with less frequent pricing.

Illiquid assets are marked slowly, so a two-week equity wobble rarely shows in a private fund statement right away. A weak mark can still arrive later, and you have no exit while you wait. Our look at how business development company (BDC) loans flagged as at risk played out shows that delay in practice.

A Fed hold also has a private-credit reading. Many private loans float off benchmark rates, so unchanged policy generally means unchanged borrower costs. That is our reasoning, not something the sources say, so check your own fund's documents. For the structure behind exits, see how the PE secondaries market works.

Common mistakes when reading weekly commentary

Treating one week as a trend is the easy one. Two down weeks for global equities is a data point, and BlackRock itself says not everyone is feeling the energy shock equally.

Forecasts get mistaken for results just as often. The 3.2% GDP figure and the unchanged-rate call are expectations until the releases come out.

Benchmarks cause quieter trouble. BlackRock cites Brent, while Fidelity's table uses WTI. They are both oil, but they are not the same price.

FAQ

What is BlackRock's weekly market commentary? It is a weekly note from the BlackRock Investment Institute. The Oct. 26 edition covers oil, AI investment and the Fed.

When does the Fed announce its next decision? Fidelity says the FOMC's two-day meeting concludes with a policy statement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. UBP expects rates to stay unchanged.

How did the S&P 500 do last week? It fell 0.47% for the week and is up 11.37% year to date, according to Fidelity's table using Yahoo Finance data as of Oct. 23.

Why are AI stocks under pressure? UBP says investors are questioning whether debt-funded AI spending can earn adequate returns. BlackRock separately reported the Nasdaq fell nearly 1% last week.

One thing to do today

Before Wednesday's 2 p.m. statement, open your latest account statements and write down what share of your holdings, public and private, depends on AI spending paying off. Then compare that number with what you intended to hold. If you'd like the week's data sorted into what matters for private holdings, sign up for the free AIN briefing.

Educational content only. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Private-market investments are illiquid and involve risk of loss, including total loss of capital. Consult qualified advisers. Angel Investors Network is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser.